Reading open interest and PCR honestly
What open interest, build-up labels, the put-call ratio and max pain can and cannot tell you.
Open interest (OI) is the number of contracts still open. Every contract has a buyer and a seller, so OI by itself says how much is at stake, not who is right.
- Long build-up: price up and OI up. Short build-up: price down and OI up.
- Short covering: price up and OI down. Long unwinding: price down and OI down.
- These are descriptions of the day's trading, not forecasts. The same label can precede a continuation or a reversal.
The put-call ratio (PCR) by OI is total put OI divided by total call OI. It is often read as contrarian sentiment, but its normal level drifts with how much hedging is going on and differs between weekly and monthly expiries, so a reading means little without its own history.
Max pain is the strike at which option buyers as a group would lose the most at expiry. Prices sometimes settle near heavily traded strikes, but max pain is a calculation on open positions, not a target.
